Publication information

Geological Survey of Canada
Open File 8764

Relative sea-level projections for Canada based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the NAD83v70VG national crustal velocity model

T.S. James, C. Robin, J.A. Henton, and M. Craymer

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2021

Permanent link: https://doi.org/10.4095/327878

Publications in this series have not been edited; they are released as submitted by the author.

Recommended citation

James, T.S., Robin, C., Henton, J.A., and Craymer, M., 2021. Relative sea-level projections for Canada based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the NAD83v70VG national crustal velocity model; Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 8764, 1 .zip file. https://doi.org/10.4095/327878

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Contents

This open file contains relative sea-level projections for Canada, based on the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and on the NAD83v70VG national crustal velocity model produced by the Geodetic Survey of Canada.  Projections are provided for the year 2006, and every decade from 2010 to 2100, relative to a baseline of 1986-2005.  Geospatial data files (geoTIFFs) are provided on a 0.1 by 0.1 degree grid, as well as colour image maps (PDF format) of the projected values, for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile values.  Additionally, century-end projections are provided for the average values over 2081 to 2100, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, as geospatial data files (geoTIFFS) and as maps (PDFs).  An Enhanced scenario, corresponding to increased Antarctic meltwater, is also provided for the year 2100.  Maps are provided for Canada and for four sub-regions of Canada, corresponding to the east coast, Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait, the north coast, and the west coast.  A report file provides information on the generation of the projections and some guidance on use of the projections.

Directory structure

of_8764.pdf (report)
of_8764_readme.rtf (this file)

Data Files

Data files are organized in three directories: “Average”, “Decadal”, and “Enhanced”.  The “Decadal” subdirectory contains subdirectories corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario, within which the geospatial data files are provided.

Decadal sea-level projections are provided in files named  
Decadal_RCPa.b_PERCENTILE_yyyy.tif,
where a.b is 2.6, 4.5, or 8.5, PERCENTILE is LOWER (5th percentile), MEDIAN (50th percentile), or UPPER (95th percentile), and yyyy is 2006, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, or 2100.  For each .tif file, a corresponding ArcMap .tfw auxiliary file is also provided.

Century-end sea-level projections (average for 2081 to 2100) are given in files named 
Average2081-2100_RCPa.b_PERCENTILE.tif,
Where a.b is 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, or 8.5, and PERCENTILE is LOWER (5th percentile), MEDIAN (50th percentile), or UPPER (95th percentile).  For each .tif file, a corresponding ArcMap .tfw auxiliary file is also provided.

Map Files
Map files are organized in five high-level directories for national, east coast, north coast, west coast, and Hudson Bay maps.  In each geographical directory, the map files are organized in three subdirectories: “Average”, “Decadal”, and “Enhanced”.   The “Decadal” subdirectory contains subdirectories corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario, within which map files are provided.

Maps of decadal sea-level projections are provided in files named  
REGION_RCPa.b_PERCENTILE_yyyy.pdf,
Where REGION is Canada, EastCoast, NorthCoast, WestCoast, or HudsonBay, a.b is 2.6, 4.5, or 8.5, PERCENTILE is LOWER (5th percentile), MEDIAN (50th percentile), or UPPER (95th percentile), and yyyy is 2006, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, or 2100.

Maps of century-end averaged (average for 2081 to 2100) relative sea-level projections are provided in files named  
Average2081-2100_REGION_RCPa.b_PERCENTILE.pdf,
Where REGION is Canada, EastCoast, NorthCoast, WestCoast, or HudsonBay, a.b is 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, or 8.5, and PERCENTILE is LOWER (5th percentile), MEDIAN (50th percentile), or UPPER (95th percentile).

Author contact information

Thomas James (Thomas.James@Canada.ca)
Geological Survey of Canada
9860 West Saanich Road
Sidney, British Columbia
V8L 4B2

Availability information

This publication is available for free download through GEOSCAN (https://geoscan.nrcan.gc.ca/).

Terms of use

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You are asked to:
•	exercise due diligence in ensuring the accuracy of the materials reproduced;
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Terms of use for data

View the licence agreement for data at http://open.canada.ca/en/open-government-licence-canada