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TitreEconomic implications of drilling sequence in shale gas development, example from Horn River Basin, Canada
AuteurChen, Z; Osadetz, K G
SourceCanadian Society of Petroleum Geologists, Canadian Society of Exploration Geophysicists, Joint Annual Meeting, Abstracts 2015.
LiensOnline - En ligne
Année2015
Séries alt.Secteur des sciences de la Terre, Contribution externe 20140394
ÉditeurCSPG
RéunionCSPG Geoconvention; Calgary; CA; mai4-8, 2015
Documentpublication en série
Lang.anglais
Mediapapier; en ligne; numérique
Formatspdf
Sujetsschistes; gaz; techniques de forage; sondage; économique; géologie économique
ProgrammeÉvaluation des ressources pétrolières pour les schistes, Les géosciences pour les nouvelles sources d'énergie
Résumé(disponible en anglais seulement)
Unconventional shale gas resource development involves intensive capital investment with considerable risk for commercial production. Economic appraisal, bringing together multidisciplinary project information and providing likely economic outcomes for various development strategy scenarios, forms the heart of development decision making. Conventional economic appraisal uses either, the average size or a size distribution of well EURs as an economic measure, but commonly does not consider the potential impact of the order of drilling, a ¿discovery sequence¿ analogue in conventional exploration, on the economic outcome of a shale gas development project. This study examines the impact of drilling order, as it pertains to the rank of well or ¿leg¿ EUR¿s on project economic performance. Any given well or ¿leg¿ drilling order, each with its own unique EUR, is essentially a result of a sampling scheme with a probability that is proportional to the unique well EUR. This permits us to adapt the ¿discovery process¿ model approach commonly used in conventional petroleum exploration to generate drilling sequence scenarios, each of which represents a possible development strategy. The resulting production forecasts are then evaluated using a discounted cash flow model to examine the economic implications of different drilling sequences or strategies. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback time (PBT) and break-even price are all used as economic criteria against different drilling strategies. To illustrate our analysis we use the monthly historical production rate from Horn River Basin hydraulically fractured wells. We infer well EURs using common decline models to compose a statistical sample that represents the natural gas productivity variation in the basin. Under the assumptions of a natural gas wellhead price of $4/mcf and a 10% of discount rate, our study shows that the drilling sequence as a function of well EUR, can have a significant impact on the economy outcome of shale play development. A random drilling strategy could lead to a negative NPV; whereas a drilling sequence that seeks to prioritize drilling by targeting the larger EUR wells early in the drilling sequence, results in a positive NPV with various PBT and IRR. This implies that early identification of sweet spots combined with an appropriate development strategy to maximize production through the prioritization of drilling targets is crucial to economic success.
Résumé(Résumé en langage clair et simple, non publié)
La mise en valeur des gaz de schiste exige de lourds investissements, et la production commerciale suppose de gros risques. L'étude porte sur l'incidence de l'ordre des travaux de forage sur le rendement économique de l'exploitation. Pour démontrer cette incidence, nous prenons comme exemple la production du bassin Horn River. Notre étude montre que la séquence de forage peut avoir un effet important sur l'issue économique de l'exploitation des gaz de schiste. La détermination hâtive des zones idéales, conjuguée à une stratégie d'exploitation adéquate qui établit l'ordre de priorité des cibles de forage est cruciale pour la réussite économique.
GEOSCAN ID295735