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TitreDisaster scenarios: loss-estimates for hazard risk analysis
AuteurStruik, L C
SourceCanadian Risk and Hazards Network 10th Annual Symposium, abstracts; 2013 p. 21-22
Année2013
Séries alt.Secteur des sciences de la Terre, Contribution externe 20130321
ÉditeurCanadian Risk and Hazards Network
RéunionCanadian Risk and Hazards Network 10th Annual Symposium; Regina; CA; Novembre 5-8, 2013
Documentlivre
Lang.anglais
Mediapapier
Formatspdf
Sujetsdangers pour la santé; théorie de la probabilité; géologie de l'environnement; géomathématique
ProgrammeEvaluation quantitiative du risque, Géoscience pour la sécurité publique
Résumé(disponible en anglais seulement)
Disaster scenarios describe the consequences of a hazard event that severely impacted something people care about. This presentation describes why you need disaster scenarios to analyse disaster risk, what constitutes a disaster scenario and how they are derived in quantitative and qualitative analysis. Risk is described as the probability of a consequence. In the field of hazards, risk of concern is when the consequence is a disaster; an event severe enough to impact lives, destroy substantive numbers of buildings and infrastructure, and cost society millions or more dollars (CDN). The catalogue of such losses are the disaster scenario caused by the hazard event. To estimate a probable disaster scenario, people and structures of some vulnerability to a particular hazard are exposed to a plausible event of that hazard of some probability (a hazard scenario). A Hazus example will be shown. A plot of various probabilities of disaster scenarios provides a measure of the risk. In summary, risk will be shown to be the profile of various disaster scenarios caused by various hazard scenarios. Know your scenarios and know your risk.
Résumé(Résumé en langage clair et simple, non publié)
Comment est-ce qu'on utilise un scénario catastrophe pour évaluation des risques.
GEOSCAN ID293309