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TitreThermal structure and megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone
AuteurSmith, G L; McNeil, L C; Wang, K; He, J; Henstock, T J
SourceGeophysical Research Letters vol. 40, 2013 p. 1-6, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50374
Année2013
Séries alt.Secteur des sciences de la Terre, Contribution externe 20120387
Documentpublication en série
Lang.anglais
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50374
Mediaen ligne; numérique
Formatspdf
Lat/Long OENS 58.0000 66.0000 28.0000 22.0000
Sujetssecousses séismiques; études séismiques; catalogues des tremblements de terre; subduction; zones de subduction; tsunami; sismicité; tectonique; géophysique
Illustrationslocation maps; tables; profiles; plots
ProgrammeTargeted Hazard Assessments in Western Canada, Géoscience pour la sécurité publique
Résumé(disponible en anglais seulement)
The Makran subduction zone experienced a tsunamigenic Mw 8.1 earthquake in 1945 and recent, smaller earthquakes also suggest seismicity on the megathrust; however, its historical record is limited and hazard potential enigmatic. We have developed a 2-D thermal model of the subduction zone. The results are twofold: (1) The thick sediment cover on the incoming plate leads to high (~150°) plate boundary temperatures at the deformation front making the megathrust potentially seismogenic to a shallow depth, and (2) the shallow dip of the subducting plate leads to a wide potential seismogenic zone (up to ~350 km). Combining these results with along strike rupture scenarios indicates that Mw8.7 - 9.2 earthquakes are possible in the seaward Makran subduction zone. These results have important earthquake and tsunami hazard implications, particularly for the adjacent coastlines of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and India, as the Makran has not been previously considered a likely candidate for a Mw>9 earthquake.
GEOSCAN ID292206