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TitreSimulating tsunami inundation at Bandon, Coos County, Oregon, using hypothetical Cascadia and Alaska earthquake scenarios
AuteurWitter, R C; Zhang, Y; Wang, K; Priest, G R; Goldfinger, C; Stimely, L L; English, J T; Ferro, P A
SourceOregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, Special Paper no. 43, 2011, 63 pages
LiensOnline - En ligne
Séries alt.Secteur des sciences de la Terre, Contribution externe 20110124
Documentpublication en série
Mediapapier; en ligne
ProvinceRégion extracotière de l'ouest
Lat/Long OENS-125.0000 -124.0000 43.5000 42.5000
Sujetssecousses séismiques; études séismiques; magnitudes des séismes; risque de tremblement de terre; mécanismes de tremblement de terre; tsunami; interpretations sismiques; risque sismique; zones sismiques; sismicité; séismologie; bathymétrie; tectonique; géophysique
Illustrationslocation maps; tables; digital elevation models
ProgrammeÉvaluations ciblées des dangers dans l'Ouest du Canada, Géoscience pour la sécurité publique
Résumé(disponible en anglais seulement)
We develop 15 full-margin rupture models for Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes that define vertical seafloor deformation used to simulate tsunami inundation at Bandon, Oregon. Rupture models include slip partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried megathrust fault. Coseismic slip is estimated from turbidite paleoseismic records (Goldfinger and others, 2011) and constraints from tsunami simulations at Bradley Lake (Witter and others, in press). Alternative scenarios are evaluated using a logic tree that ranks model consistency with geophysical and geological data. The hydrodynamic computer model SELFE (Zhang and Baptista, 2008) is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation and inundation for 15 Cascadia earthquake sources and two Alaska earthquake sources: the 1964 Mw 9.2 Prince William Sound earthquake and a maximum hypothetical earthquake beneath the Gulf of Alaska. Results describe levels of confidence (in percent) that a Cascadia tsunami will not exceed simulated wave runup. Maximum Cascadia tsunami wave elevations at the shoreline vary between ~4 and ~25 m above the model tide (mean higher high water) for earthquakes with 9 to 44 m slip and moment magnitude (Mw) 8.7 to 9.2. The simulated inundation for Cascadia scenarios is consistent with the spatial extent of deposits left by the AD 1700 tsunami and older predecessors. Simulations of the 1964 tsunami agree with limited historical observations of wave heights and runup in Bandon. We recommend using the maximum Cascadia tsunami scenario and the maximum Alaska tsunami scenario for delineating evacuation zones for the Oregon coast. The most likely tsunami scenario (M1) or the large splay fault scenario (L1), which encompass ~80 to 95 percent of the hazard, should be considered for land use planning