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TitreTemporal trend analysis of synthetic and real hydroclimate time series and impacts of long term quasi-periodic components on trend tests
AuteurChen, Z; Grasby, S E
SourceCommission géologique du Canada, Dossier public 5691, 2009, 14 pages; 1 CD-ROM, (Accès ouvert)
Documentdossier public
MediaCD-ROM; en ligne; numérique
Formatspdf; txt
Sujetsfluctuations climatiques; climatologie; climat; effets climatiques; effets sur l'environnement; etudes de l'environnement; analyse environnementales; modèles; établissement de modèles; Changement climatique; hydrogéologie; géologie de l'environnement; hydrogéologie
Illustrationsgraphs; plots; tables
Bibliothèque de Ressources naturelles Canada - Ottawa (Sciences de la Terre)
Bibliothèque de Ressources naturelles Canada - Calgary (Sciences de la Terre)
Commission géologique du Canada (Atlantique)
Bibliothèque de Ressources naturelles Canada - Vancouver (Sciences de la Terre)
Bibliothèque de Ressources naturelles Canada - Québec (Sciences de la Terre)
ProgrammeImpacts des changements climatiques et adaptation dans le secteur des ressources naturelles et d'autres secteurs clés de l'économie, Géosciences de changements climatiques
Diffusé2009 09 01
Résumé(disponible en anglais seulement)
Studies of climate and hydro-meteorological time series have found the presence of decadal and inter-decadal oscillations of quasi-periodic components (broader band signals) as part of long term natural variations in the data. If the oscillation of the quasi-periodic component is prominent, the impacts on the Mann-Kendall (M-K) and Thiel-Sen (T-S) trend tests could lead to a biased estimate and affect the prediction of future trends. This study performed the Thiel-Sen test on simulated time series of periodic components with and without trends as well as real time series of climate and river discharge data with long records in the Canadian Prairies. The results of tests suggest that the T-S test is sensitive to the presence of oscillation of long term quasi-periodic components. Data record length, magnitude of cyclic components and phase are the three most important factors affecting the M-K type of tests. The conclusion derived for the T-S test in this study can also be applied to the M-K test.