GEOSCAN, résultats de la recherche


TitreApplication of a multivariate-Bayesian approach to evaluating geological risk at play level, Nanpu Sag, eastern China
AuteurHu, S; Guo, Q; Chen, Z; Mi, S; Xie, H
SourceGeomathematics and GIS analysis of resources, environment and hazards: proceedings of IAMG 2007; par Zhao, P (éd.); Agterberg, F (éd.); Cheng, Q (éd.); 2007 p. 641-644
Séries alt.Secteur des sciences de la Terre, Contribution externe 20070469
ÉditeurInternational Association for Mathematical Geology |a Kingston, ON, Canada (Kingston, ON, Canada)
Réunion12th Conference of the International Association for Mathematical Geology; Beijing; CN; août 26-31, 2007
Lat/Long OENS114.0000 120.0000 42.0000 36.0000
SujetsPaléogène; Oligocène; exploration pétrolière; méthodes d'exploration; ressources pétrolières; présence de pétrole; capacité de production d'hydrocarbures; pétrole; puits d'exploration; débits; données sismiques; méthodes statistiques; bassins sédimentaires; techniques de cartographie; Bassin de Bohai Bay ; Formation de Dongying ; combustibles fossiles; géomathématique; Phanérozoïque; Cénozoïque; Tertiaire
Illustrationssketch maps; graphs; tables
ProgrammeLes hydrates de gaz - carburant de l'avenir?
Résumé(disponible en anglais seulement)
Geological risk evaluation is one of the important components in petroleum resource assessment. In this paper, a multivariate-Bayesian approach was applied to the Nanpu Sag of the Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, to evaluate the geological risk of the structural play in the Oligocene Dongying Formation (Ed1). Geological data from 343 exploratory wells and seismic interpretation available at the end of 2004 were used to map the geological risk of petroleum occurrence, employing the multivariate-Bayesian approach. After the evaluation, seventeen wells were drilled in 2005 and sixteen penetrated the Ed1 and tested for oil. Post drilling analysis shows that eight of the nine wells drilled in areas with predicted high probability of hydrocarbon occurrence (>50%) encountered commercial oil with high flow rates and thick net pay, and one tested oil with a low flow rate. The other seven wells were drilled in areas with relatively low probability (<50%), of which three tested dry and four recovered oil with relatively low flow rates. The predicted high potential and low risk areas in southeastern Nanpu Sag were confirmed by these sixteen exploratory wells with an 81% success rate. Comparison of post-drilling results with the pre-drilling prediction suggests that the multivariate-Bayesian approach can help visualize geological risk, thus improving exploration success by optimizing the drilling strategy.