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TitleA semiquantitative representation of uncertainty for the 3D Paleozoic bedrock model of Southern Ontario
LicencePlease note the adoption of the Open Government Licence - Canada supersedes any previous licences.
AuthorBunn, M I; Carter, T R; Russell, H A JORCID logo; Logan, C EORCID logo
SourceGeological Survey of Canada, Open File 8965, 2023, 25 pages, Open Access logo Open Access
PublisherNatural Resources Canada
Documentopen file
Mediadigital; on-line
File formatreadme
File formatpdf; rtf
NTS30; 31; 40; 41
Lat/Long WENS -83.8711 -74.4367 47.1825 41.7472
SubjectsScience and Technology; general geology; boreholes; bedrock geology; Paleozoic
Illustrationslocation maps; diagrams; tables
ProgramOpen Geoscience
Released2023 03 23
AbstractThe southern Ontario bedrock model is a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners, but its application is subject to uncertainty. To address this issue a semi-quantitative approach to visualize the relative effects of data sparsity for each layer, identify regions where a lack of data support reduces model confidence, and quantify potential errors in data collection and model construction is presented. This analysis summarizes several sources of error, including cartesian position error, error in the vertical position of the formation contact, error between the modelled topographic surface and recorded collar elevations, and error between the modelled formation top surface and formation top picks. Where data is present, these errors are added to provide an approximation of total uncertainty. Where data are not present, uncertainty is approximated as 50% of the range in formation top variation, with an average value of 27.5 m across all layers. The results show that data availability strongly influences the average total error for each layer, with deeper layers exhibiting higher total error due to lower data density. However, this analysis also suggests that the modelled surfaces likely carry errors of less than 5 to 10 m in most regions.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
An examination of the uncertainty was completed for a three-dimensional model of bedrock layers for a large region of southern Ontario. Uncertainty was assessed by examining the data used to construct each model layer, and the modelling approach. The results are presented as maps showing the various sources of error for the data, and the effect on model performance. It is expected that this information will help provide key information for application of the Southern Ontario bedrock model for a wide range of users including the general public, educators, industry, and government.

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