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TitleScientific basis of Canada's first public national seismic risk model
LicencePlease note the adoption of the Open Government Licence - Canada supersedes any previous licences.
AuthorHobbs, T EORCID logo; Journeay, J M; Rao, A S; Martins, LORCID logo; LeSueur, PORCID logo; Kolaj, M; Simionato, M; Silva, VORCID logo; Pagani, MORCID logo; Johnson, KORCID logo; Rotheram, DORCID logo
SourceGeological Survey of Canada, Open File 8918, 2022, 57 pages, Open Access logo Open Access
PublisherNatural Resources Canada
Documentopen file
Mediadigital; on-line
File formatpdf
SubjectsScience and Technology; Nature and Environment; seismic risk; earthquake risk; Seismic risk reduction plan
Illustrationscharts; graphs; diagrams; tables
ProgramPublic Safety Geoscience National Earthquake Risk Assessment Framework
Released2022 10 26
AbstractNatural Resources Canada, in partnership with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, has prepared a public Canadian Seismic Risk Model to support disaster risk reduction efforts across industry and all levels of government, and to aid in Canada's adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Developing this model has involved the creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadian specific fragility and vulnerability curves, and adjustment of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the seismic provisions of the National Building Code of Canada. Using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation's OpenQuake Engine (OQ), risk modelling is completed using both deterministic and probabilistic risk calculations, under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions. Output results are available in all settled regions of Canada, at the scale of a neighbourhood or smaller. We report on expected shaking damage to buildings, financial losses, fatalities, and other impacts such as housing disruption and the generation of debris. This paper documents the technical details of the modelling approach including a description of novel datasets in use, as well as preliminary results for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust and nation-wide 500 year expected probabilistic losses. These kinds of results, such as earthquake scenario impacts, loss exceedance curves, and annual average losses, provide a quantitative base of evidence for decision making at local, regional, and national levels.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
Understanding how earthquakes affect Canadians is crucial to being better prepared for the next 'Big One'. In this work, we use state of the art computer modelling to simulate the likely impacts from earthquakes. This model includes our current best understanding of how often certain earthquakes will occur, what buildings and people are in harm's way, and how likely those people and buildings are to be harmed. The results of the model help us understand where the greatest earthquake risks are in Canada, considering the probable financial losses, damage to buildings, and injuries to people. In some cases, we can also consider things disruption to housing, hospital demands, and the volume of rubble or debris that may fall into the streets. This model is publicly available, and will help inform decision makers across the country, to keep Canadians safer.

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