| Title | A national seismic risk model for Canada: methodology and scientific basis |
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| Author | Hobbs, T E ;
Journeay, J M; Rao, A S; Kolaj, M; Martins, L; LeSueur, P;
Simionato, M; Silva, V; Pagani, M; Johnson, K; Rotheram, D; Chow, W |
| Source | Earthquake Spectra 2023 p. 1-25, https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231173446 |
| Image |  |
| Year | 2023 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20220355 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; digital; on-line |
| File format | pdf |
| Province | Canada; British Columbia; Alberta; Saskatchewan; Manitoba; Ontario; Quebec; New Brunswick; Nova Scotia; Prince Edward Island; Newfoundland and Labrador; Northwest Territories; Yukon; Nunavut |
| NTS | 1; 2; 3; 10; 11; 12; 13; 14; 15; 16; 20; 21; 22; 23; 24; 25; 26; 27; 28; 29; 30; 31; 32; 33; 34; 35; 36; 37; 38; 39; 40; 41; 42; 43; 44; 45; 46; 47; 48; 49; 52; 53; 54; 55; 56; 57; 58; 59; 62; 63; 64; 65;
66; 67; 68; 69; 72; 73; 74; 75; 76; 77; 78; 79; 82; 83; 84; 85; 86; 87; 88; 89; 92; 93; 94; 95; 96; 97; 98; 99; 102; 103; 104; 105; 106; 107; 114O; 114P; 115; 116; 117; 120; 340; 560 |
| Subjects | Health and Safety; tectonics; earthquakes; seismic risk; seismology; Engineering; Natural hazards; Vulnerable populations |
| Illustrations | location maps; tables; graphs; bar graphs; plots |
| Program | Public Safety Geoscience National Earthquake Risk Assessment Framework |
| Released | 2023 05 20 |
| Abstract | Canada is exposed to rare but potentially destructive earthquake events that threaten densely settled metropolitan centres in many parts of the country. To assess the impacts and consequences of future
natural hazard events and help advance policy goals and objectives of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Natural Resources Canada, through a collaborative partnership with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, produced a national
seismic risk model. Developing this model has required the creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadian-specific fragility and vulnerability curves, and significant adjustment of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the
design seismic hazard values of the National Building Code of Canada. Using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation’s OpenQuake Engine, probabilistic stochastic risk modelling is completed under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions to assess
seismic risk at the neighbourhood level for all settled areas in Canada. Output risk metrics include the expected immediate physical impacts of earthquake events such as building damage, casualties, and direct economic losses. This paper documents
the technical details of the modelling approach including a description of novel datasets in use, a summary of the extensive sensitivity testing undertaken, and characterization of quality control implemented in the absence of usable validating
earthquake loss data. The results from this model, such as loss exceedance curves and annual average losses, provide an open, accessible and quantitative base of evidence for decision making at local, regional, and national levels. As a large country
with a complex seismic hazard model and dispersed populations, this Canadian study is unique. However, the challenges faced and solutions offered are likely to be of interest to other nations pursuing similar programs. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
Canada is exposed to rare but possibly very damaging earthquake events. To better understand the consequences of these events, the Geological Survey of
Canada has conducted a nation-wide earthquake risk assessment. Generally, to understand the risk you need to know something about the kinds of earthquakes that are expected to occur over a certain time horizon, what buildings you have and what they
are made out of, and how easily those buildings can be damaged. This paper will outline some of the technical aspects of how that assessment was carried out, and include some example results. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 330892 |
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