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TitleForest succession, plantations and the economy under a changing climate: coupling woodstock and CGE models to assess impacts and adaptation options in New Brunswick, Canada
AuthorLantz, V; McMonagle, G; Hennigar, C; Sharma, C; Withey, P; Ochuodho, T
Source 2021, 60 pages Open Access logo Open Access
LinksOnline - En ligne
PublisherUniversity of New Brunswick
Mediadigital; on-line
RelatedFor all publications in this group, see the following publications
File formatpdf
ProvinceNew Brunswick
NTS21A; 21B; 21G; 21H; 21I; 21J; 21O; 21P
Lat/Long WENS -68.0000 -64.0000 48.0000 44.0000
SubjectsNature and Environment; climate; Forestry; Adaptation measures and options; Climate change; Climate change adaptation; cumulative effects
Illustrationstables; graphs
ProgramClimate Change Impacts and Adaptation Climate Change Adaptation Program
ProgramClimate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Released2021 03 15
AbstractClimate change is expected to have significant impacts on forests through increases in temperature, which affects successional dynamics of tree species, and drought regimes, causing plantations to fail. Research is needed to better understand how these factors will affect forests and economies in different regions, and how we can best adapt. To shed some light on these issues, we couple a forest management model (Woodstock) with an economic model (Computable General Equilibrium) to analyze the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options on timber supply and the economy over the 2015-95 period in the case-study province of New Brunswick, Canada. We estimate that climate change will have relatively large negative impacts on softwood timber supply (at 26% by 2095), softwood forestry & logging sector output quantity (at 12% by 2095), and softwood-dependent forestry manufacturing sector output (ranging from 6% to 27% by 2095). Negative impacts on GDP will be relatively smaller (at up to a 0.35% reduction by 2095). Adapting to these climate-related changes by planting drought-resistant softwood seedlings or hardwood seedlings in place of failed softwood plantations can minimize these negative impacts, and in the latter case, positively impact hardwood timber supply (up to a 30% by 2095), hardwood forestry & logging sector output quantity (at 2.3% by 2095), and hardwood-dependent forestry manufacturing sector output (ranging from 0.2% to 2.5% by 2095). While the former adaptation option is supported using cost-benefit analysis, the latter is not - due to the large incremental costs of growing, planting, and tending hardwood seedlings. Methods developed in this study can be applied in other regions to help guide decision-making around forest management in the face of a changing climate.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
This report analyzes the potential climate change impacts and adaptation on New Brunswick's timber supply and economy by coupling a forest management model with a CGE model. Analysis was focused on the effect that climate change will have on forest succession, as this has been deemed one of the most significant (and measurable) climate-induced changes predicted to occur in New Brunswick's forests over the long term.

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