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TitleEnd-Member mixing analysis as a tool for the detection of major storms in lake sediment records
AuthorPatterson, R T; Nasser, N A; Gregory, B R B; Patterson, C W; Mazzella, V; Roe, H M; Galloway, J MORCID logo; Reinhardt, E
SourcePaleoceanography and Paleoclimatology vol. 37, issue 11, e2022PA004510, 2022 p. 1-20, Open Access logo Open Access
Alt SeriesNatural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20210454
PublisherJohn Wiley and Sons Inc
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf; html
ProvinceNew Brunswick
NTS21G11; 21G14
AreaHarvey Lake
Lat/Long WENS -67.0619 -67.0061 45.7722 45.7214
SubjectsScience and Technology; sedimentology; Nature and Environment; storms
Illustrationslocation maps; diagrams; tables; charts
ProgramEnvironmental Geoscience Mackenzie River
Released2022 10 22
AbstractExtreme Tropical Cyclone Events (ETCE) regularly cause extensive damage and loss of life in coastal regions of the western North Atlantic Basin. The short instrumental record leaves significant gaps in the understanding of long-term trends in ETCE recurrence, intensity, and rate of change, creating considerable uncertainty about future storm impacts on thise region. A 520-year core record from Harvey Lake, located >80 km from the Atlantic coast in southwestern New Brunswick, Canada, revealed extensive records of heavy rain events and ETCE using End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) of lake sediment grain size data, an approach that permits recognition of subtle sedimentological processes. Three end members were recognized and correlated to heavy rainfall events (EM01), spring freshet (EM02), and ETCE (EM03). Based on a previous analysis of lake bottom sediments following passage of Post-Tropical Storm Arthur in 2014, EM03 provides an analog for recognizing signatures of other well-documented ETCE on the lake (e.g. Saxby Gale in (1869 and), Gerda in (1969)). Numerous, major (EM01) rainfall events and four (EM03) ETCE events characterized the basal part of the core record during the early Little Ice Age (LIAa) phase, terminating at AD 1650. A near cessation of heavy rainfall events and ETCE characterized the subsequent (1650-1840), colder LIAb phase. A resurgence of major rainfall events and seven ETCE occurred during the recovery from the LIA starting in 1840. We conclude that EMMA provides a robust tool for recognition of ETCE and major rainfall events, and greatly expands the pool of potential research for studying paleo-storm activity and trends well inland from coastal regions.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
The grain size of lake sediments are used to reconstruct past storm events at a site in New Brunswick.

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