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TitleEstimation of the solar wind extreme events
AuthorLarrodera, C B; Nikitina, L NORCID logo; Cid, C T
SourceSpace Weather vol. 19, issue 12, 2021 p. 1-7, Open Access logo Open Access
Alt SeriesNatural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20210436
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
SubjectsScience and Technology; solar variations; distribution functions
Illustrationsdistribution diagrams; tables; plots
ProgramPublic Safety Geoscience Assessing space weather hazards
Released2021 11 22
AbstractThis research provides an analysis of extreme events in the solar wind and in the magnetosphere due to disturbances of the solar wind. Extreme value theory has been applied to a 20 year data set from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the period 1998-2017. The solar proton speed, solar proton temperature, solar proton density and magnetic field have been analyzed to characterize extreme events in the solar wind. The solar wind electric field, vBz has been analyzed to characterize the impact from extreme disturbances in the solar wind to the magnetosphere. These extreme values were estimated for one-in-40 and one in-80 years events, which represent two and four times the range of the original data set. The estimated values were verified by comparison with measured values of extreme events recorded in previous years. Finally, our research also suggests the presence of an upper boundary in the magnitudes under study.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
Large space weather events can cause technological problems in modern society. Assessment of extreme space weather events can help to understand and mitigate risks to technology from these hazardous events. The solar wind carries plasma and energetic particles from the Sun to the Earth. To mitigate risks from space weather to users, developers of an operational service need knowledge of frequency and magnitude of the largest perturbations in the solar wind. In this paper, extreme value theory is used to characterize extreme variations in the solar wind. Based on 20 years of solar wind data, it provides estimation of one in several decades largest possible perturbations in the solar wind, which could happen during large space weather event.

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