| Title | Estimation of the solar wind extreme events |
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| Author | Larrodera, C B; Nikitina, L N ; Cid, C T |
| Source | Space Weather vol. 19, issue 12, 2021 p. 1-7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002902  Open Access |
| Image |  |
| Year | 2021 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20210436 |
| Publisher | AGU |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf |
| Subjects | Science and Technology; solar variations; distribution functions |
| Illustrations | distribution diagrams; tables; plots |
| Program | Public Safety Geoscience Assessing space weather hazards |
| Released | 2021 11 22 |
| Abstract | This research provides an analysis of extreme events in the solar wind and in the magnetosphere due to disturbances of the solar wind. Extreme value theory has been applied to a 20 year data set from
the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the period 1998-2017. The solar proton speed, solar proton temperature, solar proton density and magnetic field have been analyzed to characterize extreme events in the solar wind. The solar wind
electric field, vBz has been analyzed to characterize the impact from extreme disturbances in the solar wind to the magnetosphere. These extreme values were estimated for one-in-40 and one in-80 years events, which represent two and four times the
range of the original data set. The estimated values were verified by comparison with measured values of extreme events recorded in previous years. Finally, our research also suggests the presence of an upper boundary in the magnitudes under study.
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| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
Large space weather events can cause technological problems in modern society. Assessment of extreme space weather events can help to understand and
mitigate risks to technology from these hazardous events. The solar wind carries plasma and energetic particles from the Sun to the Earth. To mitigate risks from space weather to users, developers of an operational service need knowledge of frequency
and magnitude of the largest perturbations in the solar wind. In this paper, extreme value theory is used to characterize extreme variations in the solar wind. Based on 20 years of solar wind data, it provides estimation of one in several decades
largest possible perturbations in the solar wind, which could happen during large space weather event. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 329281 |
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