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TitleThe first public national Canadian seismic risk model: scientific underpinnings and preliminary results for the pre-release
AuthorHobbs, T EORCID logo; Journeay, J M; Rao, A S; Kolaj, M; Martins, LORCID logo; Simionato, M; Silva, VORCID logo; Pagani, MORCID logo; Johnson, KORCID logo; Rotheram, DORCID logo; LeSueur, PORCID logo
SourceProceedings of the United States National Conference on Earthquake Engineering 2022 p. 1-5
LinksOnline - En ligne
Alt SeriesNatural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20210380
PublisherEarthquake Engineering Research Institute
Meeting12th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering; Salt Lake City; US; June 27 - July 1, 2022
Mediapaper; digital
File formatpdf
ProvinceBritish Columbia
NTS92B; 92C; 92E; 92F; 92K; 92L; 102A
AreaVancouver; Vancouver Island
Lat/Long WENS-129.0000 -123.0000 51.0000 48.0000
SubjectsHealth and Safety; tectonics; seismic risk; earthquake risk; modelling; Risk assessment; Natural hazards
Illustrationslocation maps; graphs
ProgramPublic Safety Geoscience National Earthquake Risk Assessment Framework
Released2022 06 28
AbstractTo support disaster risk reduction efforts across industry and all levels of government, Natural Resources Canada has prepared a publicly available Canadian Seismic Risk Model. Its development has involved creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadaspecific fragility and vulnerability curves, and incorporation of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the seismic provisions of the Building Code of Canada. Modelling is completed in the Global Earthquake Model Foundation's OpenQuake Engine, for both deterministic and probabilistic risk calculations, under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions. This paper documents the technical details of the modelling approach including a description of novel datasets in use, as well as preliminary results for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust and probabilistic losses for Victoria, British Columbia. Generally speaking, results, such as earthquake scenario impacts, loss exceedance curves, and annual average losses, provide a quantitative base of evidence for decision making at a local, regional, or even national level.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
This work reports on the technical and scientific basis for the Canadian Seismic Risk Model - the first publicly-available national risk assessment to be carried out to date. This model utilizes the latest national seismic hazard model with newly developed engineering functions to describe the probability of damage or loss, and a purpose-built database of building types and locations in Canada. The calculations are carried out using the OpenQuake engine, a free software from the Global Earthquake Model foundation. The model contains a probabilistic assessment, which considers the effect of all possible earthquakes, and a scenario earthquake catalogue. Preliminary results show that a magnitude 9 earthquake on the West Coast, in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, would cause around $40 billion in damage and claim around 3400 lives in British Columbia. The national risk model will be made available through a custom web application called 'RiskProfiler', which will allow non-technical users to explore their risk.

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