| Title | The first public national Canadian seismic risk model: scientific underpinnings and preliminary results for the pre-release |
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| Author | Hobbs, T E ;
Journeay, J M; Rao, A S; Kolaj, M; Martins, L; Simionato, M;
Silva, V; Pagani, M; Johnson, K; Rotheram, D; LeSueur, P |
| Source | Proceedings of the United States National Conference on Earthquake Engineering 2022 p. 1-5 |
| Links | Online - En ligne
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| Image |  |
| Year | 2022 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20210380 |
| Publisher | Earthquake Engineering Research Institute |
| Meeting | 12th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering; Salt Lake City; US; June 27 - July 1, 2022 |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; digital |
| File format | pdf |
| Province | British Columbia |
| NTS | 92B; 92C; 92E; 92F; 92K; 92L; 102A |
| Area | Vancouver; Vancouver Island |
| Lat/Long WENS | -129.0000 -123.0000 51.0000 48.0000 |
| Subjects | Health and Safety; tectonics; seismic risk; earthquake risk; modelling; Risk assessment; Natural hazards |
| Illustrations | location maps; graphs |
| Program | Public Safety Geoscience National Earthquake Risk Assessment Framework |
| Released | 2022 06 28 |
| Abstract | To support disaster risk reduction efforts across industry and all levels of government, Natural Resources Canada has prepared a publicly available Canadian Seismic Risk Model. Its development has
involved creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadaspecific fragility and vulnerability curves, and incorporation of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the seismic provisions of the Building Code of Canada. Modelling
is completed in the Global Earthquake Model Foundation's OpenQuake Engine, for both deterministic and probabilistic risk calculations, under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions. This paper documents the technical details of the modelling
approach including a description of novel datasets in use, as well as preliminary results for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust and probabilistic losses for Victoria, British Columbia. Generally speaking, results, such as
earthquake scenario impacts, loss exceedance curves, and annual average losses, provide a quantitative base of evidence for decision making at a local, regional, or even national level. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
This work reports on the technical and scientific basis for the Canadian Seismic Risk Model - the first publicly-available national risk assessment to be
carried out to date. This model utilizes the latest national seismic hazard model with newly developed engineering functions to describe the probability of damage or loss, and a purpose-built database of building types and locations in Canada. The
calculations are carried out using the OpenQuake engine, a free software from the Global Earthquake Model foundation. The model contains a probabilistic assessment, which considers the effect of all possible earthquakes, and a scenario earthquake
catalogue. Preliminary results show that a magnitude 9 earthquake on the West Coast, in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, would cause around $40 billion in damage and claim around 3400 lives in British Columbia. The national risk model will be made
available through a custom web application called 'RiskProfiler', which will allow non-technical users to explore their risk. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 329155 |
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