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Title	Development of production-forecasting model based on the characteristics of production decline analysis using the reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters in Montney shale gas reservoir, Canada
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Author	Shin, H; Nguyen-Le, V; Kim, M; Shin, H; Little, E
Source	Characterisation and assessment methods for shale plays; by Lee, H (ed.); Mort, A (ed.); Chen, Z; Geofluids 2021, 6613410, 2021 p. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6613410 Open Access
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Year	2021
Alt Series	Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20210295
Publisher	Wiley
Publisher	Hindawi
Document	serial
Lang.	English
Media	digital; on-line
File format	pdf; html
Province	Alberta; British Columbia
NTS	83C; 83E; 83F; 83K; 83L; 83M; 83N; 84C; 84D; 84E; 84L; 93J; 93O; 93P; 94A; 94B; 94G; 94H; 94I; 94J
Area	Grande Prairie; Fort St. John
Lat/Long WENS	-123.0000 -116.2500 58.2500 52.7500
Subjects	fossil fuels; Economics and Industry; Science and Technology; petroleum industry; petroleum resources; hydrocarbons; gas; hydrocarbon recovery; production; modelling; reservoirs; hydraulic fracturing; Montney Formation; Forecasting; Methodology
Illustrations	flow charts; tables; models; time series; bar graphs; plots
Program	Geoscience for New Energy Supply (GNES) Shale-hosted petroleum resource assessment
Released	2021 10 19
Abstract	This study developed a production-forecasting model to replace the numerical simulation and the decline curve analysis using reservoir and hydraulic fracture data in Montney shale gas reservoir, Canada. A shale-gas production curve can be generated if some of the decline parameters such as a peak rate, a decline rate, and a decline exponent are properly estimated based on reservoir and hydraulic fracturing parameters. The production-forecasting model was developed to estimate five decline parameters of a modified hyperbolic decline by using significant reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters which are derived through the simulation experiments designed by design of experiments and statistical analysis: (1) initial peak rate (Phyp), (2) hyperbolic decline rate (Dhyp), (3) hyperbolic decline exponent (bhyp), (4) transition time (Ttransition), and (5) exponential decline rate (Dexp). Total eight reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters were selected as significant parameters on five decline parameters from the results of multivariate analysis of variance among 11 reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters. The models based on the significant parameters had high predicted R2 values on the cumulative production. The validation results on the 1-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year cumulative production data obtained by the simulation showed a good agreement: R2 > 0.89. The developed production-forecasting model can be also applied for the history matching. The mean absolute percentage error on history matching was 5.28% and 6.23% for the forecasting model and numerical simulator, respectively. Therefore, the results from this study can be applied to substitute numerical simulations for the shale reservoirs which have similar properties with the Montney shale gas reservoir.
Summary	(Plain Language Summary, not published) Predictive geoscience is an important component of improving our efficiency and carbon avoidance in hydrocarbon resource extraction. This study developed a production-forecasting model to replace the numerical simulation and the decline curve analysis typically used in reservoir and hydraulic fracturing production forecasts. Specifically we generate a production curve using key decline parameters such as a peak rate, a decline rate, and a decline exponent are properly estimated based on reservoir and hydraulic fracturing parameters. The models are based on the significant parameters that had high predicted values on the cumulative production. The validation results on the 1-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year cumulative production data obtained by the simulation showed a good agreement.
GEOSCAN ID	329034