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TitleDevelopment of production-forecasting model based on the characteristics of production decline analysis using the reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters in Montney shale gas reservoir, Canada
 
AuthorShin, HORCID logo; Nguyen-Le, VORCID logo; Kim, MORCID logo; Shin, HORCID logo; Little, EORCID logo
SourceCharacterisation and assessment methods for shale plays; by Lee, H (ed.); Mort, A (ed.); Chen, ZORCID logo; Geofluids 2021, 6613410, 2021 p. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6613410 Open
Access logo Open Access
Image
Year2021
Alt SeriesNatural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20210295
PublisherWiley
PublisherHindawi
Documentserial
Lang.English
Mediadigital; on-line
File formatpdf; html
ProvinceAlberta; British Columbia
NTS83C; 83E; 83F; 83K; 83L; 83M; 83N; 84C; 84D; 84E; 84L; 93J; 93O; 93P; 94A; 94B; 94G; 94H; 94I; 94J
AreaGrande Prairie; Fort St. John
Lat/Long WENS-123.0000 -116.2500 58.2500 52.7500
Subjectsfossil fuels; Economics and Industry; Science and Technology; petroleum industry; petroleum resources; hydrocarbons; gas; hydrocarbon recovery; production; modelling; reservoirs; hydraulic fracturing; Montney Formation; Forecasting; Methodology
Illustrationsflow charts; tables; models; time series; bar graphs; plots
ProgramGeoscience for New Energy Supply (GNES) Shale-hosted petroleum resource assessment
Released2021 10 19
AbstractThis study developed a production-forecasting model to replace the numerical simulation and the decline curve analysis using reservoir and hydraulic fracture data in Montney shale gas reservoir, Canada. A shale-gas production curve can be generated if some of the decline parameters such as a peak rate, a decline rate, and a decline exponent are properly estimated based on reservoir and hydraulic fracturing parameters. The production-forecasting model was developed to estimate five decline parameters of a modified hyperbolic decline by using significant reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters which are derived through the simulation experiments designed by design of experiments and statistical analysis: (1) initial peak rate (Phyp), (2) hyperbolic decline rate (Dhyp), (3) hyperbolic decline exponent (bhyp), (4) transition time (Ttransition), and (5) exponential decline rate (Dexp). Total eight reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters were selected as significant parameters on five decline parameters from the results of multivariate analysis of variance among 11 reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters. The models based on the significant parameters had high predicted R2 values on the cumulative production. The validation results on the 1-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year cumulative production data obtained by the simulation showed a good agreement: R2 > 0.89. The developed production-forecasting model can be also applied for the history matching. The mean absolute percentage error on history matching was 5.28% and 6.23% for the forecasting model and numerical simulator, respectively. Therefore, the results from this study can be applied to substitute numerical simulations for the shale reservoirs which have similar properties with the Montney shale gas reservoir.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
Predictive geoscience is an important component of improving our efficiency and carbon avoidance in hydrocarbon resource extraction. This study developed a production-forecasting model to replace the numerical simulation and the decline curve analysis typically used in reservoir and hydraulic fracturing production forecasts. Specifically we generate a production curve using key decline parameters such as a peak rate, a decline rate, and a decline exponent are properly estimated based on reservoir and hydraulic fracturing parameters. The models are based on the significant parameters that had high predicted values on the cumulative production. The validation results on the 1-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year cumulative production data obtained by the simulation showed a good agreement.
GEOSCAN ID329034

 
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