Title | Development of production-forecasting model based on the characteristics of production decline analysis using the reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters in Montney shale gas reservoir,
Canada |
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Author | Shin, H ;
Nguyen-Le, V ; Kim, M ; Shin, H ; Little, E |
Source | Characterisation and assessment methods for shale plays; by Lee, H (ed.); Mort, A (ed.); Chen, Z ; Geofluids 2021, 6613410, 2021 p. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6613410 Open Access |
Image |  |
Year | 2021 |
Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20210295 |
Publisher | Wiley |
Publisher | Hindawi |
Document | serial |
Lang. | English |
Media | digital; on-line |
File format | pdf; html |
Province | Alberta; British Columbia |
NTS | 83C; 83E; 83F; 83K; 83L; 83M; 83N; 84C; 84D; 84E; 84L; 93J; 93O; 93P; 94A; 94B; 94G; 94H; 94I; 94J |
Area | Grande Prairie; Fort St. John |
Lat/Long WENS | -123.0000 -116.2500 58.2500 52.7500 |
Subjects | fossil fuels; Economics and Industry; Science and Technology; petroleum industry; petroleum resources; hydrocarbons; gas; hydrocarbon recovery; production; modelling; reservoirs; hydraulic fracturing;
Montney Formation; Forecasting; Methodology |
Illustrations | flow charts; tables; models; time series; bar graphs; plots |
Program | Geoscience for New Energy Supply (GNES) Shale-hosted petroleum resource assessment |
Released | 2021 10 19 |
Abstract | This study developed a production-forecasting model to replace the numerical simulation and the decline curve analysis using reservoir and hydraulic fracture data in Montney shale gas reservoir, Canada.
A shale-gas production curve can be generated if some of the decline parameters such as a peak rate, a decline rate, and a decline exponent are properly estimated based on reservoir and hydraulic fracturing parameters. The production-forecasting
model was developed to estimate five decline parameters of a modified hyperbolic decline by using significant reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters which are derived through the simulation experiments designed by design of experiments and
statistical analysis: (1) initial peak rate (Phyp), (2) hyperbolic decline rate (Dhyp), (3) hyperbolic decline exponent (bhyp), (4) transition time (Ttransition), and (5) exponential decline rate (Dexp). Total eight reservoir and hydraulic fracture
parameters were selected as significant parameters on five decline parameters from the results of multivariate analysis of variance among 11 reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters. The models based on the significant parameters had high
predicted R2 values on the cumulative production. The validation results on the 1-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year cumulative production data obtained by the simulation showed a good agreement: R2 > 0.89. The developed production-forecasting model can be also
applied for the history matching. The mean absolute percentage error on history matching was 5.28% and 6.23% for the forecasting model and numerical simulator, respectively. Therefore, the results from this study can be applied to substitute
numerical simulations for the shale reservoirs which have similar properties with the Montney shale gas reservoir. |
Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published) Predictive geoscience is an important component of improving our efficiency and carbon avoidance in hydrocarbon resource extraction. This study developed
a production-forecasting model to replace the numerical simulation and the decline curve analysis typically used in reservoir and hydraulic fracturing production forecasts. Specifically we generate a production curve using key decline parameters such
as a peak rate, a decline rate, and a decline exponent are properly estimated based on reservoir and hydraulic fracturing parameters. The models are based on the significant parameters that had high predicted values on the cumulative production. The
validation results on the 1-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year cumulative production data obtained by the simulation showed a good agreement. |
GEOSCAN ID | 329034 |
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