| Title | On the relevance of geodetic deformation rates to earthquake potential |
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| Author | Wang, K ; Zhu, Y;
Nissen, E; Shen, Z -K |
| Source | Geophysical Research Letters vol. 18, issue 11, e2021GL093231, 2021 p. 1-9, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093231 |
| Year | 2021 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20200646 |
| Publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf; html |
| Area | China |
| Lat/Long WENS | 90.0000 100.0000 43.0000 36.0000 |
| Lat/Long WENS | 114.0000 124.0000 39.0000 33.0000 |
| Subjects | geophysics; tectonics; structural geology; Science and Technology; Nature and Environment; Health and Safety; satellite geodesy; earthquakes; earthquake magnitudes; earthquake mechanisms; earthquake
risk; seismic risk; plate tectonics; deformation; displacement; models; bedrock geology; structural features; faults, strike-slip; stress analyses; strain analysis; Altyn Tagh Fault; Yishu Fault |
| Illustrations | models; profiles; time series; plots; location maps; geoscientific sketch maps |
| Program | Public Safety Geoscience Assessing Earthquake Geohazards |
| Released | 2021 05 04 |
| Abstract | Despite the importance of viscoelasticity in the evolution of crustal stress/strain being widely recognized, the interpretation of interseismic geodetic measurements for assessing earthquake potential
is still based overwhelmingly on elastic models. The reasons for this disparity include conflating deformation rates with deformation itself and the lack of a succinct representation of the seismic readiness of a locked fault in a viscoelastic Earth.
Using a classical viscoelastic model for strike-slip faults, we reiterate the commonly overlooked message that, if the recurrence interval is long, most of the strain energy for the next earthquake accrues early in the cycle, and low strain rates
later in the cycle by no means indicate diminished rupture potential. Fault stress stays near failure for much of the late interseismic period which may explain why slow slip-rate faults have more variable recurrence intervals than fast slip-rate
faults. We propose to use displacement deficit instead of slip deficit to represent seismic readiness. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
Modern satellite measurements can reveal how quickly faults are being loaded by tectonic plate motions, and seismic hazard models use these loading rates
as a proxy for the likelihood of a pending earthquake. However, because of the partially fluid-like behavior of Earth's interior, these loading rates actually evolve with time since the last rupture. For faults with long intervals between successive
earthquakes, these rates slow substantially as the next event draws near. We therefore caution that slow rates of loading should not be assumed to reflect limited earthquake potential. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 327918 |
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