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TitleRelative sea-level projections for Canada based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the NAD83v70VG national crustal velocity model
LicencePlease note the adoption of the Open Government Licence - Canada supersedes any previous licences.
AuthorJames, T SORCID logo; Robin, C; Henton, J AORCID logo; Craymer, MORCID logo
SourceGeological Survey of Canada, Open File 8764, 2021, 23 pages, Open Access logo Open Access
LinksReport - Rapport (pdf)
LinksFifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5)
LinksClimate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
PublisherNatural Resources Canada
Documentopen file
Mediaon-line; digital
RelatedThis publication is related to Relative sea-level projections in Canada and the adjacent mainland United States
File formatreadme
File formatpdf; rtf; Geotiff
ProvinceCanada; Offshore region; Eastern offshore region; Northern offshore region; Western offshore region; British Columbia; Alberta; Saskatchewan; Manitoba; Ontario; Quebec; New Brunswick; Nova Scotia; Prince Edward Island; Newfoundland and Labrador; Northwest Territories; Yukon; Nunavut; Canada
NTS1; 2; 3; 10; 11; 12; 13; 14; 15; 16; 20; 21; 22; 23; 24; 25; 26; 27; 28; 29; 30; 31; 32; 33; 34; 35; 36; 37; 38; 39; 40; 41; 42; 43; 44; 45; 46; 47; 48; 49; 52; 53; 54; 55; 56; 57; 58; 59; 62; 63; 64; 65; 66; 67; 68; 69; 72; 73; 74; 75; 76; 77; 78; 79; 82; 83; 84; 85; 86; 87; 88; 89; 92; 93; 94; 95; 96; 97; 98; 99; 102; 103; 104; 105; 106; 107; 114O; 114P; 115; 116; 117; 120; 340; 560
AreaCanada; United States of America
Lat/Long WENS-141.0000 -50.0000 90.0000 41.7500
Subjectsmarine geology; geophysics; environmental geology; Nature and Environment; sea level changes; sea level fluctuations; isostatic rebound; crustal uplift; coastal environment; shoreline changes; climate effects; temperature; geodesy; models; National Crustal Velocity Model NAD83v70VG; Global positioning systems; Climate change; Greenhouse gases; Atmospheric emissions; geographic information system application
Illustrationsgeoscientific sketch maps; location maps; tables; plots
ProgramClimate Change Geoscience Coastal Infrastructure
Released2021 01 26; 2021 02 12
AbstractThis report provides national and regional maps and national geospatial data files (geoTIFFs) of projected relative sea-level change across Canada for 2006 and every decade from 2010 to 2100. It updates and augments previous reports which included plots and tables of projected relative sea-level change at specified locations where a measurement of vertical land motion had been made by Global Positioning System (GPS). Here, gridded projections are provided at a resolution of 0.1º in latitude and longitude encompassing all coastal regions of Canada. The relative sea-level projections are based on the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the NAD83v70VG national crustal velocity model. Projections are relative to 1986-2005, and are given for the median value and 5th and 95th percentiles for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. As well, the projected sea level at 2100 is given for an enhanced scenario where Antarctica is assumed to provide an additional 65 cm of global sea-level rise to the median projection of RCP8.5. For many purposes, the upper (95th percentile) of the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario may comprise the appropriate planning level, but if tolerance to the risk of sea-level rise is low, it may be appropriate to consider a larger amount of projected sea-level rise.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
New sea-level projections are presented in a grid, or map, format for all coastal locations in Canada. The projections are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, and extend to the year 2100, relative to a starting time frame of 1986-2005. Projections are given for low, intermediate, and high-emission scenarios of future carbon emission pathways. Projected relative sea-level change across Canada depends on the amount of projected global sea-level rise and on vertical land motion. Relative sea-level is projected to continue to fall in regions where the land is rising quickly, such as Hudson Bay and much of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and is projected to rise in other parts of Canada, including the Beaufort coastline, British Columbia, and much of Atlantic Canada.

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