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TitleProbabilistic seismic risk assessment of India
AuthorRao, A; Dutta, D; Kalita, P; Ackerley, N; Silva, V; Raghunandan, M; Ghosh, J; Ghosh, S; Brzev, S; Dasgupta, K
SourceEarthquake Spectra 2020 p. 1-27,
Alt SeriesNatural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20200470
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc.
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf; html
Lat/Long WENS 63.5833 91.8333 31.0500 4.6500
SubjectsScience and Technology; seismicity
Illustrationslocation maps; diagrams; tables; graphs
Released2020 09 25
AbstractThis study presents a comprehensive open probabilistic seismic risk model for India. The proposed model comprises a nationwide residential and non-residential building exposure model, a selection of analytical seismic vulnerability functions tailored for Indian building classes, and the open implementation of an existing probabilistic seismic hazard model for India. The vulnerability of the building exposure is combined with the seismic hazard using the stochastic (Monte Carlo) event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine to estimate probabilistic seismic risk metrics such as average annual economic losses and the exceedance probability curves at the national, state, district, and subdistrict levels. The risk model and the underlying datasets, along with the risk metrics calculated at different scales, are intended to be used as tools to quantitatively assess the earthquake risk across India and also compare with other countries to develop risk-informed building design guidelines, for more careful land-use planning, to optimize earthquake insurance pricing, and to enhance general earthquake risk awareness and preparedness.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
In this study, researchers have created a comprehensive model to assess earthquake risks in India. They gathered data about buildings, both residential and non-residential, all over the country. They also developed a set of vulnerability functions to understand how different types of buildings in India would react to earthquakes. Furthermore, they incorporated a seismic hazard model, which predicts the likelihood of earthquakes in various regions of India.
By combining these data and models, the researchers were able to estimate the potential earthquake risks. They calculated things like the average annual economic losses that could occur due to earthquakes and the likelihood of specific levels of losses.
The purpose of this study and its risk model is to help India prepare for earthquakes. It provides valuable information for decision-makers, city planners, and insurance companies. For example, it can help design buildings that are better equipped to withstand earthquakes. It can also assist in deciding where it's safe to build, how to price earthquake insurance, and how to create public awareness and preparedness programs. Essentially, this research is about making India safer and better prepared for earthquakes.

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