| Title | Scenario earthquake models developed for British Columbia - part of a pilot project in the application of Global Earthquake Model's OpenQuake for Canada's national seismic hazard and risk
assessments |
| |
| Author | Bird, A L; Allen, T I; Journeay, M; Cassidy, J F ; Côté, M M |
| Source | Canadian Risk and Hazards Network Annual Symposium; 2017 p. 1 |
| Year | 2017 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20200378 |
| Publisher | Canadian Risk and Hazards Network |
| Meeting | Canadian Risk and Hazards Network Annual Symposium 2017; Montreal, QC; CA; November 2017 |
| Document | Web site |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf |
| Program | Public Safety Geoscience Quantitative risk assessment project |
| Released | 2017 11 01 |
| Abstract | The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) has embarked upon a pilot project to investigate the use of Global Earthquake Model's (GEM) OpenQuake as a tool for undertaking a national-scale seismic risk
assessment. Past editions of the National Building Code of Canada have focused on probabilistic seismic hazard models. GSC seismologists are investigating modern techniques for detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment, plus the inclusion of
deterministic (scenario) earthquakes based on mapped faults, for emergency planning and exercise coordination. As part of this project, a series of feasible earthquake scenarios have been developed for faults along British Columbia's seismically
active west coast. Included are: an M~7.5 earthquake along the seismic gap at the southern end of the Queen Charlotte Fault, off Haida Gwaii; an M~7.0 event along the recently profiled extension of the Devil's Mountain Fault just off the City of
Victoria's waterfront, where there lies the potential for a Christchurch-like earthquake; an M~7.2 event along the Leech River Fault which cuts through southern Vancouver Island, also relatively close to Victoria; a shallow M~7.3 event along a
theoretical fault in the Georgia Strait region, between Vancouver Island and highly populous Greater Vancouver; and a megathrust earthquake of M~9.0 along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, off BC, Washington, Oregon and northern California. The resulting
scenarios provide anticipated ground motions which are then incorporated into impact models, considering site conditions, infrastructure and population exposure. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
For a national seismic risk assessment, the GSC is investigating the OpenQuake software. Future editions of the National Building Code will use such
modern techniques for detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment, plus include scenario earthquakes for the use of emergency planners. As part of this project, feasible earthquake scenarios were developed for faults along British Columbia's
seismically active west coast, including: an M~7.5 earthquake along the Queen Charlotte Fault, off Haida Gwaii; an M~7.0 event along the Devil's Mountain Fault just off the City of Victoria, with the potential for a Christchurch-like earthquake; an
M~7.4 event along the Leech River Fault, southern Vancouver Island; a shallow M~7.3 event along a theoretical fault in the Georgia Strait region, adjacent highly populous Vancouver; and a megathrust earthquake of M~9 along the Cascadia Subduction
Zone. Scenarios provide ground motions for risk models, considering site conditions, infrastructure and people. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 327171 |
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