| Title | Examining the viability of the world's busiest winter road to climate change using a process-based lake model |
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| Author | Mullan, D J; Barr, I D; Galloway, J M ; Newton, A M; Swindles, G T |
| Source | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2021 p. 1-37, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0168.1  Open Access |
| Image |  |
| Year | 2021 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20200321 |
| Publisher | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf |
| Province | Northwest Territories |
| NTS | 75K; 75L; 75M; 75N; 76C; 76D; 76E; 76F; 85I; 85J; 85O; 85P; 86A; 86B; 86G; 86H |
| Area | Tibbitt Lake; Lac de Gras |
| Lat/Long WENS | -115.0000 -108.0000 65.0000 62.5000 |
| Subjects | Nature and Environment; Science and Technology; Economics and Industry; Transport; climate effects; lakes; ice thicknesses; models; temperature; Climate change; Infrastructures; Road networks; Mining
industry |
| Illustrations | tables; location maps; bar graphs; geoscientific sketch maps; time series; plots |
| Program | Environmental
Geoscience Mackenzie River |
| Released | 2021 04 08 |
| Abstract | Winter roads play a vital role in linking communities and building economies in the northern high latitudes. With these regions warming two to three times faster than the global average, climate change
threatens the long-term resilience of these important seasonal transport routes. We examine how climate change will impact the world's busiest heavy-haul winter road - the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR) in northern Canada. The FLake
freshwater lake model is used to project ice thickness for a lake at the start of the TCWR - first using observational climate data, and second using modelled climate scenarios corresponding to varying rates of warming ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C above
preindustrial temperatures. Our results suggest that 2°C warming could be a tipping point for the TCWR, leading to at best costly adaptation and at worst the need for alternative forms of transportation. Containing warming to the more ambitious
temperature target of 1.5°C pledged at the 2016 Paris Agreement may be the only way to keep the TCWR operational - albeit for a reduced window of time. More widely, we show that higher regional winter warming across much of the rest of Arctic North
America threatens the long-term resilience of winter roads at a continental scale. This underlines the importance of continued global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions to avoid many long-term and irreversible impacts of climate change.
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| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
Warming of 2°C may be a tipping point for the world's busiest winter road, while enhanced winter warming threatens the resilience of winter roads across
Arctic North America. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 326998 |
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