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TitleFirst-order seismic loss assessment at urban scale: a case study of Skopje, north Macedonia
AuthorMircevska, V; Abo El Ezz, AORCID logo; Gjorgjeskaa, I; Smirnoff, A; Nastev, MORCID logo
SourceJournal of Earthquake Engineering 2019 p. 1-19,
Alt SeriesNatural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20190582
PublisherTaylor & Francis
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
AreaSkopje; Vodno Mountain; Crna Gora Mountain; Balkan Peninsula; North Macedonia
Lat/Long WENS 21.3000 21.5500 42.0667 41.9333
Subjectsgeophysics; regional geology; tectonics; stratigraphy; surficial geology/geomorphology; Health and Safety; Economics and Industry; seismic risk; earthquake risk; seismicity; earthquakes; earthquake damage; seismic waves; seismic velocities; amplitude spectra; models; urban planning; tectonic history; plate margins; faulting; depositional history; glacial history; bedrock geology; structural features; faults, thrust; folds; lithology; sedimentary rocks; sandstones; conglomerates; claystones; mudstones; carbonates; lacustrine deposits; fluvial deposits; metamorphic rocks; sediments; sands; gravels; lithostratigraphy; land use; Neogene; Miocene; Pliocene; 1963 M6.1 Skopje Earthquake; M7.2 Skopje Earthquake; Methodology; Costs; Buildings; Urban environment; alluvial sediments; Classification; Phanerozoic; Cenozoic; Quaternary; Tertiary; Paleozoic
Illustrationslocation maps; plans; geoscientific sketch maps; stratigraphic cross-sections; plots; pie charts; tables; bar graphs
ProgramPublic Safety Geoscience
Released2019 09 16
AbstractRelatively simple method for seismic loss assessment is presented based on probabilistic hazard, event scenarios and local building inventory. EMS98-dependent vulnerability model is transformed to continuous fragility functions correlating damage probability to peak ground acceleration. The proposed method illustrated over 59,950 inventoried buildings and evaluated with replacement cost of $25.5B. For a repeat of the M6.1 1963 earthquake, simulations predict immediate losses of about $6.8B and 1,908 red-tagged buildings, compared to about $5B and 15,800 red-tagged building at the time. Average losses from probabilistic scenarios range from $1.6B (return period of 100y) to $17.8B (10,000y).

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