| Title | Permafrost thaw and northern development |
| |
| Author | O'Neill, H B ;
Burn, C R; Allard, M; Arenson, L U; Bunn, M I; Connon, R F;
Kokelj, S A; Kokelj, S V; LeBlanc, A -M; Morse, P D; Smith, S L |
| Source | Nature Climate Change vol. 10, issue 8, 2020 p. 722-723, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0862-5 |
| Image |  |
| Year | 2020 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20190500 |
| Publisher | Springer Nature |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf; html |
| Province | Newfoundland and Labrador; Northwest Territories; Nunavut; Quebec; Yukon |
| NTS | 15; 16; 25; 26; 27; 29; 35; 36; 37; 38; 39; 45; 46; 47; 48; 49; 55; 56; 57; 58; 59; 65; 66; 67; 68; 69; 75; 76; 77; 78; 79; 85; 86; 87; 88; 89; 95; 96; 97; 98; 99; 105; 106; 107; 115; 116; 117; 120; 340;
560 |
| Area | Labrador |
| Lat/Long WENS | -141.0000 -60.0000 90.0000 60.0000 |
| Subjects | surficial geology/geomorphology; environmental geology; Nature and Environment; Science and Technology; permafrost; ground ice; climate; temperature; hydrologic environment; hydraulic analyses; models;
permafrost thaw; Northern development; Northern Canada; Climate change |
| Program | Climate Change
Geoscience Permafrost |
| Released | 2020 07 29 |
| Abstract | (unpublished)
Increases in air temperature have resulted in warming and thawing of permafrost with effects on infrastructure, mass movements, and carbon stores. Further changes to hydrology,
ecology, and human activities are anticipated in the Circumpolar North given projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. Simulations examining effects of permafrost thaw are critical tools for developing adaptation and mitigation
strategies. The practical utility of such simulations depends on valid representation of key earth surface processes. Teufel and Sushama project abrupt soil drainage and drying in permafrost regions on the basis of an arbitrary assumption that
invokes drainage of soil water as soon as permafrost in the uppermost 5 m of the ground is thawed, regardless of whether the underlying ground is frozen. This assumption is not valid. The novel findings claimed by the authors are a direct result of
inadequate process representation in the land surface scheme. There is no field or historical evidence to support results from the model that abrupt, broad-scale transitions of the soil environment above permafrost due to thawing have already
occurred. In addition, the assertion that drying of the soil will provoke sudden deleterious consequences for infrastructure or northern development is unfounded. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
This letter is a critical response to an article published in Nature Climate Change of model predictions that permafrost thaw will cause abrupt changes
in soil moisture conditions. The article indicates that an abrupt drainage following thaw of upper permafrost will have a number of consequences for northern development. In this response we argue that the model setup is inappropriate and that the
effects described are an artifact of the simulation. We caution the applicability of the results for the purposes of policy planning in northern regions. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 321756 |
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