| Title | A new protocol to map permafrost geomorphic features and advance thaw-susceptibility modelling |
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| Author | Rudy, A C A; Morse, P D ; Kokelj, S V; Sladen, W E; Smith, S L |
| Source | Cold Regions Engineering 2019: proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Cold Regions Engineering and the 8th Canadian Permafrost Conference; by Bilodeau, J -P (ed.); Nadeau, D F (ed.); Fortier,
D (ed.); Conciatori, D (ed.); 2019 p. 661-669, https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784482599.076 |
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| Year | 2019 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20190154 |
| Publisher | American Society of Civil Engineers |
| Meeting | 18th International Conference on Cold Regions Engineering and the 8th Canadian Permafrost Conference; Québec, QC; CA; August 18-22, 2019 |
| Document | book |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf (Adobe® Reader®) |
| Province | Northwest Territories; Yukon |
| NTS | 106E; 106L; 106M; 106N; 107A; 107B; 107C; 107D; 115O; 115P; 116A; 116B; 116G; 116H; 116I; 116J; 116P |
| Area | Dempster Highway; Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway; Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula; Mackenzie Delta; Fort McPherson; Eagle Plains; Dawson |
| Lat/Long WENS | -140.0000 -130.0000 69.7500 63.7500 |
| Subjects | surficial geology/geomorphology; environmental geology; geophysics; Nature and Environment; Science and Technology; permafrost; ground ice; periglacial features; thermokarst; ice-wedge polygons;
climate; modelling; landslides; mass wasting; slumps; slope stability analyses; slope failures; hydrologic environment; ground temperatures; remote sensing; satellite imagery; Peel Plateau; Anderson Plain; Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands; Climate change;
permafrost thaw; Infrastructures; Methodology |
| Illustrations | location maps; geoscientific sketch maps; satellite images; tables; models; plots |
| Program | Climate Change
Geoscience Permafrost |
| Released | 2019 08 08 |
| Abstract | Permafrost thaw can destabilize terrain, initiate thermokarst processes that alter landscapes, and create geohazards for communities and infrastructure. A robust, standardized methodology was developed
to map indicators of thaw-sensitive permafrost terrain, including mass wasting and periglacial features. The method was applied to a 10-km wide corridor centred on the Dempster and Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk Highways, which are constructed over a wide range
of terrain and permafrost conditions. Here we use random forest models, trained and validated with mass movement and ice-wedge polygon inventories, to develop thaw-susceptibility models for two regions along the corridor, Peel Plateau, and Anderson
Plain and Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands. Geomorphological and hydrological variables were used as predictors providing insights into the characteristics constraining the distribution of thaw-sensitive terrain. In the Peel region, mass movements have a
higher potential of occurring on concave, moderate to steep slopes (7 to 18°) in fluvially-incised valleys. In uplands of Anderson Plain and Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, mass movements occur on moderate slopes (5 to 15°) adjacent to incised stream
channels, and along lakeshores. The ice-wedge polygon model across the forest tundra transition north of Inuvik highlights the northward increase in polygonal terrain with decreasing ground temperatures. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
Thawing permafrost triggers thermokarst processes that alter landscapes and create geohazards for communities and infrastructure. A methodology has been
developed to map mass movements and periglacial phenomena along a 10 km wide corridor centred on the Dempster and Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk roads. Statistical models and inventories of mass movements and ice polygons were used to develop thaw sensitivity
models for two regions along the corridor: Peel Plateau, and Anderson Plain and Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands. On the Peel Plateau, mass movements are more likely to occur on moderate to steep slopes in river valleys. In the Anderson Plains and Tuktoyaktuk
Coastlands, mass movements occur on moderate slopes adjacent to streams and along the shores of the lake. The polygonal model shows the increase in the north associated with a decrease in ground temperature. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 315029 |
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