| Title | Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models |
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| Author | Reiss, M A; Temmer, M; Veronig, A M; Nikolic, L; Vennerstrom, S; Schöngassner, F; Hofmeister, S J |
| Source | Space Weather vol. 14, issue 7, 2016 p. 495-510, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001390  Open Access |
| Image |  |
| Year | 2016 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20180466 |
| Publisher | Wiley-Blackwell |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf (Adobe® Reader®); html |
| Subjects | geophysics; extraterrestrial geology; models; geomagnetism; geomagnetic fields; magnetosphere; magnetic storms; Forecasting |
| Illustrations | tables; time series; diagrams; bar graphs; plots |
| Program | Public Safety Geoscience Northern Canada Geohazards Project |
| Released | 2016 07 15 |
| Abstract | High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar
wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ
plasma measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation between the coronal hole area observed in Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging
Assembly (AIA) images and solar wind properties at the near-Earth environment, the WSA model establishes a link between properties of the open magnetic field lines extending from the photosphere to the corona and the background solar wind conditions.
We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large-scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root-mean-square error, RMSE ~~100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high-speed
solar wind streams (threat score, TS ~~ 0.37). The predicted high-speed streams show typical uncertainties in the arrival time of about 1 day and uncertainties in the speed of about 100 km/s. General advantages and disadvantages of the investigated
solar wind models are diagnosed and outlined. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
Space weather refers to the dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment, in particular, in the near-Earth environment, that can affect
critical infrastructure. NRCan operates the Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre and conducts research into space weather effects on power systems, pipelines, radio communications and GNSS positioning to help Canadian industry understand and
mitigate the effects of space weather. The interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field can affect the intensity and direction of the magnetic field. Here, we evaluate high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind
forecast and the semi-empirical Wang-Sheely-Arge model. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 314579 |
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