| Title | An operational framework for forecasting the ambient solar wind |
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| Author | Reiss, M; MacNeice, P J; Mays, L M; Möstl, C; Nikolic, L |
| Source | Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE 2018), Proceedings of the conference
; 2018 p. 1  Open Access |
| Links | Online - En ligne (SHINE 2018)
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| Links | Online - En ligne (SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS))
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| Image |  |
| Year | 2018 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20180440 |
| Meeting | SHINE 2018 - Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment; Cocoa Beach, FL; US; July 30-August 3, 2018 |
| Document | Web site |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; on-line; digital |
| File format | html |
| Subjects | geophysics; extraterrestrial geology; solar variations; geomagnetism; geomagnetic fields; geomagnetic variations; models; Forecasting |
| Program | Public Safety Geoscience Northern Canada Geohazards Project |
| Released | 2018 07 01 |
| Abstract | The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by the activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behaviour of
interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting.
Here we present the implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind. We focus on three empirically- based techniques for calculating the solar wind speed from the global topology of
open magnetic field lines using the current-free approximation, namely the Wang-Sheeley (WS) model, the Distance from the Coronal Hole Boundary (DCHB) model, and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. We systematically investigate their sensitivity to
initial conditions and parameter settings. In this way, we deduce the optimal implementation of these techniques in terms of well-established forecast validation procedures. The developed framework will be implemented at NASA's CCMC online platform,
where real-time runs including confidence bounds will be made accessible to the space weather community. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
Space weather refers to the dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment, in particular, in the near-Earth environment, that can affect
critical infrastructure. NRCan operates the Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre and conducts research into space weather effects on power systems, pipelines, radio communications and GNSS positioning to help Canadian industry understand and
mitigate the effects of space weather. The interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field can affect the intensity and direction of the magnetic field. This work deals with the numerical modelling which aims to provide operational
forecast of the solar wind speed. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 314539 |
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