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TitleAn operational framework for forecasting the ambient solar wind
 
AuthorReiss, M; MacNeice, P J; Mays, L M; Möstl, C; Nikolic, L
SourceSolar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE 2018), Proceedings of the conference ; 2018 p. 1 Open Access logo Open Access
LinksOnline - En ligne (SHINE 2018)
LinksOnline - En ligne (SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS))
Image
Year2018
Alt SeriesNatural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20180440
MeetingSHINE 2018 - Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment; Cocoa Beach, FL; US; July 30-August 3, 2018
DocumentWeb site
Lang.English
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formathtml
Subjectsgeophysics; extraterrestrial geology; solar variations; geomagnetism; geomagnetic fields; geomagnetic variations; models; Forecasting
ProgramPublic Safety Geoscience Northern Canada Geohazards Project
Released2018 07 01
AbstractThe ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by the activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behaviour of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here we present the implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind. We focus on three empirically- based techniques for calculating the solar wind speed from the global topology of open magnetic field lines using the current-free approximation, namely the Wang-Sheeley (WS) model, the Distance from the Coronal Hole Boundary (DCHB) model, and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. We systematically investigate their sensitivity to initial conditions and parameter settings. In this way, we deduce the optimal implementation of these techniques in terms of well-established forecast validation procedures. The developed framework will be implemented at NASA's CCMC online platform, where real-time runs including confidence bounds will be made accessible to the space weather community.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
Space weather refers to the dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment, in particular, in the near-Earth environment, that can affect critical infrastructure. NRCan operates the Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre and conducts research into space weather effects on power systems, pipelines, radio communications and GNSS positioning to help Canadian industry understand and mitigate the effects of space weather. The interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field can affect the intensity and direction of the magnetic field. This work deals with the numerical modelling which aims to provide operational forecast of the solar wind speed.
GEOSCAN ID314539

 
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