| Title | Spatio-temporal simulation of permafrost geothermal response to climate change scenarios in a building environment |
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| Author | Zhou, F; Zhang, A; Li, R; Hoeve, E |
| Source | Cold Regions Science and Technology vol. 56, no. 43134, 2009 p. 141-151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2008.12.004 |
| Year | 2009 |
| Alt Series | Natural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20181191 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf |
| Subjects | geophysics; Nature and Environment; remote sensing; Climate change |
| Program | Canada Centre for Remote Sensing Divsion |
| Released | 2009 05 01 |
| Abstract | Significant climate warming, as observed over the past decades and projected by global climate models, would inevitably cause permafrost degradation in the Arctic regions. Several studies have been
conducted to assess geothermal response to climate change in natural conditions; no study, however, has been observed yet to examine the potential response of the permafrost geothermal regime in a building environment. This paper presents a
methodology and the results of a case study in the community of Inuvik, Canada of the spatio-temporal dynamics simulation of the geothermal regime under climate change scenarios in a building environment. A process-based, surface-coupled,
3-dimensional geothermal model was used for the simulation. The results suggest that the permafrost under the study would deteriorate under all the three climate change scenarios assessed, and the rate of the deterioration would depend on
geotechnical properties of subsurface materials and climate change scenarios. Two patterns of the geothermal dynamics were revealed from the simulation results: spatially, there are significant differences in the rate of increase in active layer
thickness underneath vs. around a building; and temporally, there is an abrupt rise in the active layer thickness around the middle of this century. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 311545 |
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