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TitleThe Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty
AuthorDuputel, Z; Jiang, J; Jolivet, R; Simons, M; Rivera, L; Ampuero, J P; Riel, B; Owen, S E; Moore, A W; Samsonov, S V; Ortega Culaciati, F; Minson, S E
SourceGeophysical Research Letters vol. 42, 2015 p. 7949-7957, (Open Access)
Alt SeriesNatural Resources Canada, Contribution Series 20170190
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
AreaIquique; Northern Chile; Chile
Lat/Long WENS -73.0000 -69.0000 -17.0000 -24.0000
Subjectssubduction zones; earthquakes; remote sensing; seismic data; geodesy; aftershocks; Bayesian modelling; seismic gap; kinematic slip model; sharp slip zone
Illustrationslocation maps; satellite images; graphs; histograms; formulae
Released2015 10 03
AbstractThe subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.