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TitleContinuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake
AuthorHayes, G P; Herman, M W; Barnhart, W D; Furlong, K P; Riquelme, S; Benz, H M; Bergman, E; Barrientos, S; Earle, P S; Samsonov, SORCID logo
SourceNature vol. 512, 2015 p. 296-299,
Alt SeriesEarth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20150199
PublisherSpringer Nature
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
AreaIquique; Northern Chile; Chile
Lat/Long WENS -70.2500 -70.0000 -20.0000 -20.2500
Subjectsgeophysics; earthquakes; earthquake risk; earthquake studies; earthquake mechanisms; seismic interpretations; seismicity; Chile Subduction zone
Illustrationslocation maps; plots
Released2014 08 13
AbstractThe seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile (3-6), which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M 8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismo tectonics of the March- April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

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