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TitleEstimating sea-level allowances for atlantic Canada using the fifth assessment report of the IPCC
AuthorZhai, L; Greenan, B; Hunter, J; James, T SORCID logo; Han, G; Macauley, P; Henton, JORCID logo
SourceAtmosphere-Ocean vol. 53, issue 5, 2015 p. 1-15, Open Access logo Open Access
Alt SeriesEarth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20140459
PublisherInforma UK Limited
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
ProvinceNova Scotia; Quebec; Prince Edward Island; New Brunswick
NTS12; 11
Lat/Long WENS -64.0000 -56.0000 52.0000 44.0000
Subjectsenvironmental geology; Nature and Environment; sea level changes; sea level fluctuations; flood potential; floods; climate; climate effects; shoreline changes
Illustrationsequations; location maps; tables; graphs
ProgramClimate Change Geoscience Coastal Infrastructure
Released2015 11 27
AbstractSea-level allowances at 22 tide gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on the latest projections of regional sea-level rise for representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances increase with time during the 21st century because of the mean sea-level rise and its increased uncertainty. They show significant spatial variation, which is mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change due to the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A replacement of the GIA component of the projection with Global Positioning System (GPS) data significantly decreases the allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the period 1995-2099, the sea level allowances range from about 0.5 m in the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1 m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
The paper makes projections of the sea-level allowance for locations in Atlantic Canada, based on the projections of relative sea-level change given in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The sea-level allowance is the change in elevation needed to ensure that the future frequency of flooding is the same as the present-day frequency.

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