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TitleRelative sea-level projections in Canada and the adjacent mainland United States
DownloadDownloads
AuthorJames, T S; Henton, J A; Leonard, L J; Darlington, A; Forbes, D L; Craymer, M
SourceGeological Survey of Canada, Open File 7737, 2014, 72 pages, https://doi.org/10.4095/295574
Year2014
PublisherNatural Resources Canada
Documentopen file
Lang.English
Mediaon-line; digital
RelatedThis publication is related to James, T S; Henton, J A; Leonard, L J; Darlington, A; Forbes, D L; Craymer, M; (2015). Tabulated values of relative sea-level projections in Canada and the adjacent mainland United States, Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 7942
File formatpdf
ProvinceEastern offshore region; Northern offshore region; Western offshore region; British Columbia; Manitoba; Ontario; Quebec; New Brunswick; Nova Scotia; Prince Edward Island; Newfoundland and Labrador; Northwest Territories; Yukon; Nunavut
NTS1; 2; 3; 10; 11; 12; 13; 14; 15; 16; 20; 21; 22; 23; 24; 25; 26; 27; 28; 29; 30; 31; 32; 33; 34; 35; 36; 37; 38; 39; 40; 41; 42; 43; 44; 45; 46; 47; 48; 49; 52; 53; 54; 55; 56; 57; 58; 59; 62; 63; 64; 65; 66; 67; 68; 69; 72; 73; 74; 75; 76; 77; 78; 79; 82; 83; 84; 85; 86; 87; 88; 89; 92; 93; 94; 95; 96; 97; 98; 99; 102; 103; 104; 105; 106; 107; 114O; 114P; 115; 116; 117; 120; 340; 560
AreaWashington; Maine; New Hampshire; Massachusetts; Canada; United States
Lat/Long WENS-141.0000 -50.0000 90.0000 41.7500
Subjectssurficial geology/geomorphology; marine geology; sea level changes; sea level fluctuations; water levels; paleo-sea levels; isostatic rebound; coastal environment; coastal studies; coastal erosion; shorelines; shoreline changes
Illustrationslocation maps; tables; histograms; plots
Viewing
Location
 
Natural Resources Canada Library - Ottawa (Earth Sciences)
 
ProgramCoastal Infrastructure, Climate Change Geoscience
Released2014 12 12
AbstractRelative sea-level projections are provided for 59 locations in Canada and 10 in the adjacent mainland United States (New England and Washington State) through the 21st century, relative to 1986-2005. The projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). They include contributions from thermal expansion of the ocean (steric effect), land ice melting and discharge, and anthropogenic influences. The global mean sea-level projection for RCP8.5, the largest emissions scenario, at 2100 is 74 cm (5%-95% range is 54 to 98 cm). Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of vertical land motion are incorporated into the relative sea-level projections. In the regions presented here, vertical land motion, largely arising from glacial isostatic adjustment, plays a prominent role in determining projected relative sea-level change. On the east coast, crustal subsidence, combined with dynamic oceanographic changes, generates relative sea-level projections that are similar to or larger than the global mean projections in large parts of Atlantic Canada and New England. On the west coast, most relative sea-level projections are smaller than the global means, although some sites in Washington State and southern British Columbia feature relative sea-level projections similar to the global values. The largest variation in projected relative sea-level rise occurs in the Arctic, owing to the very large spatial differences in present-day crustal uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment. Here, projected relative sea-level at 2100 varies from around 1 m of sea-level fall (median values) where land is rising quickly on Hudson Bay, while it reaches about 70 cm of sea-level rise on the Beaufort coast where the land is subsiding. A scenario featuring partial collapse of a portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet provides an additional 65 cm of sea-level rise to RCP8.5, and may be appropriate to consider when tolerance to the risk of sea-level rise is low. The relative sea-level projections given here only provide a trajectory through this century, but the IPCC AR5 projects continued global sea-level rise in coming centuries. As understanding improves of the various components of sea-level rise, it will be necessary to update, on an occasional basis, the relative sea-level projections and re-evaluate the implications for infrastructure, habitat, and marine navigation.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
Relative sea-level projections are provided across Canada and the adjacent U.S. through the 21st century. The projections are based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of vertical land motion are incorporated into the relative sea-level projections. On the east coast, relative sea-level projections are similar to or larger than the global mean projections across much of the area, while on the west coast, most relative sea-level projections are smaller than the global means. The largest variation in projected relative sea-level rise occurs in the Arctic. Here, projected relative sea-level at 2100 varies from around 1 m of sea-level fall where land is rising quickly on Hudson Bay, while it reaches about 70 cm of sea-level rise on the Beaufort coast where the land is subsiding.
GEOSCAN ID295574