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TitleA numerical framework for operational solar wind prediction
AuthorNikolic, L; Trichtchenko, LORCID logo; Boteler, DORCID logo
SourcePapers from the 23rd International Toki Conference on large-scale simulation and fusion science; by Japan Society of Plasma Science and Nuclear Fusion Research; Plasma and Fusion Research vol. 9, no. 2, 3406099, 2014 p. 1-5, Open Access logo Open Access
Alt SeriesEarth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20140002
PublisherJapan Society of Plasma Science and Nuclear Fusion Research
Meeting23rd International Toki Conference on Large-scale Simulation and Fusion Science; Toki-city; JP; November 18-21, 2013
Lang.English; English
Mediaon-line; digital
File formatpdf; html
Subjectsextraterrestrial geology; Health and Safety; modelling; analytical methods; magnetic field; magnetic anomalies
ProgramPublic Safety Geoscience Northern Canada Geohazards Project
Released2014 01 01
AbstractWe report on the development of numerical components for an operational solar wind prediction framework. In particular, we discuss the coronal magnetic field component based on the potential field source surface and Schatten current sheet models, and the solar wind speed component which uses the empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge relation between solar wind speed and open magnetic field lines. Using synoptic maps of photospheric fields in a stand-alone operational mode, the components provide the configuration of the global coronal magnetic field and prediction of the solar wind speed at 1AU. A good agreement between numerical prediction and solar wind speed observations has been found.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
Space weather refers to the dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment, in particular, in the near-Earth environment, that can affect critical infrastructure. NRCan operates the Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre and conducts research into space weather effects on power systems, pipelines, radio communications and GNSS positioning to help Canadian industry understand and mitigate the effects of space weather. This work deals with the numerical modeling that aims to provide satisfactory prediction of variations in the solar wind speed 1-5 days in advance.

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