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TitleA new approach to mapping permafrost and change incorporating uncertainties in ground conditions and climate projections
AuthorZhang, Y; Olthof, I; Fraser, R; Wolfe, S
SourceArcticNet (ASM2013), programme; 2013 p. 115
LinksOnline - En ligne
Year2013
Alt SeriesEarth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20130467
MeetingArcticNet's 9th Annual Scientific Meeting (ASM2013); Halifax; CA; December 9-13, 2013
Documentbook
Lang.English
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
Subjectssurficial geology/geomorphology; permafrost; freezing ground; ground ice; ground temperatures; computer mapping; mapping techniques
ProgramLand-based Infrastructure, Climate Change Geoscience
AbstractSpatially detailed information about permafrost and its changes with climate is critical for land-use planning and for environmental and ecological assessment. However, knowledge about soil and ground conditions is poor and projected climate scenarios have a wide range. Here we propose a new approach to map permafrost and its changes by integrating field observations, remote sensing data, and a process-based model. Land-cover types from satellite imagery were used to capture the general land conditions and to improve the resolution of the current permafrost maps. The probability of different ground conditions within a land-cover type was estimated based on field observations. A process-based model was used to quantify permafrost conditions and their transient changes for each ground condition under three representative climate scenarios (low, medium and high warming). From the model results, the probability of permafrost existence and the most likely permafrost conditions can be determined. We applied this approach to a large area at 20 m resolution in Northwest Territories, Canada. The mapped permafrost conditions were in agreement with field observations and other studies. It demonstrates that the data requirement, model robustness and computation time are reasonable, and this approach may serve as a practical way to map permafrost and its changes at high resolution for various regions.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
The current permafrost maps are coarse and did not consider changes with climate. Therefore, they cannot meet the needs for land-use planning and for environmental assessments. This study developed a new approach to mapping permafrost and changes with climate by integrating field measurements, remote sensing, and a permafrost model. Land-cover types developed from satellite imagery are used to capture the general land conditions and to improve the spatial resolution. The probabilities of different ground conditions are estimated from field measurements. A process-based model is used to calculate the evolution of permafrost under three representative climate scenarios. From the model results, the probability of permafrost occurrence and the most likely permafrost conditions are determined. We tested this approach at 20 m resolution in a large area in Northwest Territories, Canada. It shows that this approach can be used to map permafrost in other regions at high resolution.
GEOSCAN ID293673