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TitleDisaster scenarios: loss-estimates for hazard risk analysis
AuthorStruik, L C
SourceCanadian Risk and Hazards Network 10th Annual Symposium, abstracts; 2013 p. 21-22
Alt SeriesEarth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20130321
PublisherCanadian Risk and Hazards Network
MeetingCanadian Risk and Hazards Network 10th Annual Symposium; Regina; CA; November 5-8, 2013
File formatpdf
Subjectsenvironmental geology; mathematical and computational geology; health hazards; probability theory; Hazus; geological hazards
ProgramQuantitave risk assessment project, Public Safety Geoscience
AbstractDisaster scenarios describe the consequences of a hazard event that severely impacted something people care about. This presentation describes why you need disaster scenarios to analyse disaster risk, what constitutes a disaster scenario and how they are derived in quantitative and qualitative analysis. Risk is described as the probability of a consequence. In the field of hazards, risk of concern is when the consequence is a disaster; an event severe enough to impact lives, destroy substantive numbers of buildings and infrastructure, and cost society millions or more dollars (CDN). The catalogue of such losses are the disaster scenario caused by the hazard event. To estimate a probable disaster scenario, people and structures of some vulnerability to a particular hazard are exposed to a plausible event of that hazard of some probability (a hazard scenario). A Hazus example will be shown. A plot of various probabilities of disaster scenarios provides a measure of the risk. In summary, risk will be shown to be the profile of various disaster scenarios caused by various hazard scenarios. Know your scenarios and know your risk.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
How to use a disaster scenario to analyse hazard risk.