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TitleEarthquake preparedness should not fluctuate on a daily or weekly basis
AuthorWang, KORCID logo; Rogers, G C
SourceSeismological Research Letters vol. 85, no. 3, 2014 p. 569-571,
Alt SeriesEarth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20130308
PublisherSeismological Society of America (SSA)
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
Subjectsgeophysics; Health and Safety; earthquake risk; earthquakes; earthquake damage; seismic risk; health hazards
ProgramPublic Safety Geoscience Assessing Earthquake Geohazards
Released2014 05 03
AbstractOperational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) is the practice of continual updating and dissemination of physics-based short-term (days) probabilities for the occurrence damaging earthquakes. While fully appreciating the noble intention of OEF and the scientific merits of the seismicity analyses it employs, we are concerned that its wide promotion may lead the public to believe that earthquake preparedness can fluctuate at timescales of days or weeks.
Summary(Plain Language Summary, not published)
Society¿s best strategy against the consequence of earthquakes is to focus on making the built environment earthquake resistant. With regard to forecasting, our view can be summarized as follows. (1) In mitigating seismic risk, the goal is to let people stay in their buildings without fear and without getting hurt, not to tell people when to escape from their buildings. (2) Forecast of seismic hazard should be made over decades and centuries, so that society knows how to strengthen the built environment within economic constraints. (3) Except for aftershocks, the scientific community has no authoritative role to play in providing forecasts over days and weeks.

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