| Title | Earthquake preparedness should not fluctuate on a daily or weekly basis |
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| Author | Wang, K ; Rogers,
G C |
| Source | Seismological Research Letters vol. 85, no. 3, 2014 p. 569-571, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130195 |
| Image |  |
| Year | 2014 |
| Alt Series | Earth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20130308 |
| Publisher | Seismological Society of America (SSA) |
| Document | serial |
| Lang. | English |
| Media | paper; on-line; digital |
| File format | pdf |
| Subjects | geophysics; Health and Safety; earthquake risk; earthquakes; earthquake damage; seismic risk; health hazards |
| Illustrations | graphs |
| Program | Public Safety Geoscience Assessing Earthquake Geohazards |
| Released | 2014 05 03 |
| Abstract | Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) is the practice of continual updating and dissemination of physics-based short-term (days) probabilities for the occurrence damaging earthquakes. While fully
appreciating the noble intention of OEF and the scientific merits of the seismicity analyses it employs, we are concerned that its wide promotion may lead the public to believe that earthquake preparedness can fluctuate at timescales of days or
weeks. |
| Summary | (Plain Language Summary, not published)
Society¿s best strategy against the consequence of earthquakes is to focus on making the built environment earthquake resistant. With regard to
forecasting, our view can be summarized as follows. (1) In mitigating seismic risk, the goal is to let people stay in their buildings without fear and without getting hurt, not to tell people when to escape from their buildings. (2) Forecast of
seismic hazard should be made over decades and centuries, so that society knows how to strengthen the built environment within economic constraints. (3) Except for aftershocks, the scientific community has no authoritative role to play in providing
forecasts over days and weeks. |
| GEOSCAN ID | 293286 |
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