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TitleConfidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone
AuthorPriest, G R; Goldfinger, C; Wang, KORCID logo; Witter, R C; Zhang, Y; Baptista, A M
SourceNatural Hazards vol. 54, issue 1, 2009 p. 27-73,
Alt SeriesEarth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20090116
PublisherSpringer Nature
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
AreaOregon; United States of America
Lat/Long WENS-124.0000 -123.9167 45.9000 45.8500
Subjectsgeophysics; structural geology; tsunami; flood potential; floods; earthquakes; earthquake studies; earthquake mechanisms; earthquake magnitudes; structural features; faults; Cascadia Subduction Zone; geological hazards
Illustrationslocation maps; tables; aerial photographs; profiles
ProgramReducing Risk from Natural Hazards
Released2009 09 21
AbstractTo explore the local tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone we (1) evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process, (2) specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and (3) use resulting vertical coseismic deformations for simulation of tsunami inundation at Cannon Beach, Oregon. Maximum runup was 9 to 30 m (NAVD88) from earthquakes with slip of ~8-38 m and Mw ~8.3 -9.4. Minimum subduction zone slip consistent with three tsunami deposits was 14-15 m. By assigning variable weights to the source scenarios using a logic tree, we derived percentile inundation lines that express the confidence level (percentage) that a Cascadia tsunami will NOT exceed the line. Ninety-nine percent of Cascadia tsunami variation is covered by runup =30 m and 90% =16 m with a "preferred" (highest weight) value of ~10 m. A hypothetical maximum-considered distant tsunami had runup of ~11 m, while the historical maximum was ~6.5 m.

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