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TitleModeling long-term dynamics of snow and their impacts on permafrost in Canada
AuthorZhang, YORCID logo; Chen, WORCID logo; Riseborough, D W
SourceNinth international conference on permafrost, proceedings volume 2; by Kane, D L (ed.); Hinkel, K M (ed.); 2008 p. 2055-2060
Alt SeriesEarth Sciences Sector, Contribution Series 20070518
PublisherInternational Permafrost Association
MeetingNinth international conference on Permafrost; Fairbanks, Alaska; US; June 29 - July 3, 2008
Mediapaper; CD-ROM; DVD
Subjectssurficial geology/geomorphology; Nature and Environment; permafrost; ground ice; freezing ground; ground temperatures; snow; precipitation; models; modelling; Climate change
Illustrationscross-sections; plots; profiles
ProgramEnhancing resilience in a changing climate
Released2008 01 01
AbstractSeasonal snow, controlled mainly by temperature and precipitation, has a significant impact on ground temperature; therefore, it is essential to integrate snow dynamics for assessing the impacts of climate change on permafrost. In this study, we simulated snow dynamics in a permafrost model over the years 1850-2100 in Canada at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude/longitude. We validated the results by comparing them with snow measurements at climate stations. This long-term spatial modeling shows that snow depth would be thinner in eastern and northern Canada, and the duration of snow cover would be shorter almost everywhere in Canada by the end of the 21st century, causing a 1°C-2°C warming of annual mean ground temperature compared to changes in the annual mean air temperature. That means the concurrent change in snow condition would reduce the amount of permafrost degradation in response to climate warming.

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