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TitlePredicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model
AuthorChen, Z; Grasby, S E; Osadetz, K G
SourceJournal of Hydrology 260, 1-4, 2002 p. 102-117,
Alt SeriesGeological Survey of Canada, Contribution Series 2001163
PublisherElsevier BV
Mediapaper; on-line; digital
File formatpdf
Subjectshydrogeology; environmental geology; Nature and Environment; groundwater flow; groundwater; groundwater levels; aquifers; climate effects; carbonate rocks; environmental impacts; groundwater resources
Illustrationsformulae; graphs; location maps; geological sketch maps
AbstractOn the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.